As the calendar turns to September, Major League Soccer enters its proverbial home stretch.
Just when outdoor temperatures begin to drop, pressure around the league amplifies as clubs battle for their postseason lives. As of today, no team has clinched a playoff spot, nor is any team mathematically eliminated.
In short, there’s still everything to play for.
That leads us to our first 2016 installment of Playoff Math. Despite its losing record, Sporting Kansas City (11-12-5, 38 points) is actually in decent shape heading into the final two months of the regular season. Peter Vermes’ men sit fifth in the Western Conference table, six points above the dubious red line. According to Sports Club Stats, the team has an 81.8 percent chance of making the playoffs.
Sporting KC's magic number is 12
Our aforementioned source indicates that 12 points from Sporting Kansas City’s final six games would guarantee a club-record sixth straight playoff appearance.
The math may not appear intuitive based on a quick look at the standings. The Portland Timbers, San Jose Earthquakes and Seattle Sounders FC, for instance, could all leap Sporting KC if these teams win out. Thing is, it’s impossible for all of these sides to win out based on common opponents in the remaining schedule.
Sporting KC's remaining MLS schedule
<strong>DATE</strong> |
<strong>TIME (CT)</strong> |
<strong>OPPONENT</strong> |
<strong>RECORD</strong> |
Friday, Sept. 9 |
7pm |
HOUSTON DYNAMO |
5-11-10 (25 pts) |
Sunday, Sept. 18 |
1pm |
LA GALAXY |
9-4-13 (40 pts) |
Saturday, Sept. 24 |
9:30pm |
at San Jose Earthquakes |
7-8-11 (32 pts) |
Saturday, Oct. 1 |
6:30pm |
at New England Revolution |
6-12-9 (27 pts) |
Sunday, Oct. 16 |
6pm |
at Real Salt Lake |
12-8-7 (43 pts) |
Sunday, Oct. 23 |
3pm |
SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES |
7-8-11 (32 pts) |
Twelve points from the six games above is no easy task. But in all likelihood, Sporting KC won’t need 12. The club still has a 94 percent chance of booking a playoff spot if it finishes with 46 points, and even an 85 percent chance if it finishes with 45 points.
Top-four in store?
Everyone wants a guaranteed home playoff game. In order to get that, you have to finish in the top four of your conference. Based again on calculations from Sports Club Stats, here are Sporting KC’s chances of earning a top-four seed in the West given their regular season point total.
<strong>PTS</strong> |
<strong>TOP-4<br>
CHANCE</strong> |
56 |
100% |
54 |
98% |
53 |
91% |
52 |
85% |
51 |
66% |
50 |
42-50% |
49 |
29% |
48 |
13-18% |
47 |
4-6% |
46 |
2% |
45 |
0% |
Now that we’ve gone through the number-crunching, here’s a current look at the Western Conference table. It’s congested. It’s unpredictable. And it’s what makes this time of year so exciting.
Western Conference standings (through Sept. 2)
<strong>TEAM</strong> |
<strong>GP</strong> |
<strong>W</strong> |
<strong>L</strong> |
<strong>T</strong> |
<strong>PTS</strong> |
<strong>LAST 5</strong> |
<strong>PLAYOFF<br>
CHANCES</strong> |
1. FC Dallas |
27 |
14 |
7 |
6 |
48 |
2-1-2 |
99.9% |
2. Real Salt Lake |
27 |
12 |
8 |
7 |
43 |
3-2-0 |
99.5% |
3. Colorado Rapids |
25 |
11 |
4 |
10 |
43 |
1-2-2 |
99.9% |
4. LA Galaxy |
26 |
9 |
4 |
13 |
40 |
0-1-4 |
99.6% |
<em><strong>5. Sporting KC</strong></em> |
<strong><em>28</em></strong> |
<strong><em>11</em></strong> |
<strong><em>12</em></strong> |
<strong><em>5</em></strong> |
<strong><em>38</em></strong> |
<b><i>2-2-1</i></b> |
<b><i>81.8%</i></b> |
6. Portland Timbers |
27 |
9 |
10 |
8 |
35 |
2-3-0 |
50.1% |
7. SJ Earthquakes |
26 |
7 |
8 |
11 |
32 |
1-2-2 |
28.6% |
8. Seattle Sounders FC |
26 |
9 |
13 |
4 |
31 |
3-1-1 |
28.2% |
9. Vancouver Whitecaps |
27 |
8 |
12 |
7 |
31 |
0-4-1 |
11.7% |
10. Houston Dynamo |
26 |
5 |
11 |
10 |
25 |
1-2-2 |
0.6% |
Playoff chances calculated by Sports Club Stats
