The final month of the 2016 MLS regular season is upon us, and only one team in the Western Conference has punched its playoff ticket. While FC Dallas sits atop the table, the rest of the pack still has work to do.
Sporting Kansas City enters October with 43 points from 31 games, good for fifth place in the West. According to Sports Club Stats, the team has an 87.9 percent chance of making the playoffs for a club-record sixth straight season. That number took a healthy jump from 65.6 percent when Peter Vermes' men claimed a massive 2-1 road win against the San Jose Earthquakes on Saturday.
Sporting KC's magic number is 8
Mathematically speaking, eight points from Sporting Kansas City's final three matches would guarantee a playoff berth. But because it's impossible to take eight points from three games (two wins and a draw gets you seven points), the club must win out to ensure advancement to the postseason.
Even if Sporting Kansas City doesn't take maximum points, they're still in solid shape. As Sports Club Stats calculates, the team has better than a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs with 46 points -- just three more than its current total.
The math might not seem right based on a quick look at the standings, as teams placed 6-10 in the West could theoretically leapfrog Sporting KC if they all win out. Thing is, it’s impossible for all of these sides to win out based on common opponents in the remaining schedule.
Sporting KC's remaining schedule (12-12-7, 43 points)
<strong>DATE</strong> |
<strong>TIME (CT)</strong> |
<strong>OPPONENT</strong> |
<strong>RECORD</strong> |
Saturday, Oct. 1 |
6:30pm |
at New England Revolution |
9-13-9 (36 pts) |
Sunday, Oct. 16 |
6pm |
at Real Salt Lake |
12-10-9 (45 pts) |
Sunday, Oct. 23 |
3pm |
SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES |
7-9-13 (34 pts) |
The Portland Timbers (41 points, 31 GP) and Seattle Sounders FC (38 points, 29 GP), presently sixth and seventh in the West, are the two teams Sporting KC will be watching closely. Seattle has two games in hand and made an emphatic statement on Sunday, winning 4-2 at the LA Galaxy. If Sporting KC can outlast just one of the two Cascadia sides, another trip to the playoffs is all but secured.
Portland Timbers' remaining schedule (11-12-8, 41 points)
<strong>DATE</strong> |
<strong>TIME (CT)</strong> |
<strong>OPPONENT</strong> |
<strong>RECORD</strong> |
Saturday, Oct. 1 |
8pm |
at Colorado Rapids |
12-5-12 (48 pts) |
Sunday, Oct. 16 |
4pm |
COLORADO RAPIDS |
12-5-12 (48 pts) |
Sunday, Oct. 23 |
3pm |
at Vancouver Whitecaps FC |
9-14-8 (35 pts) |
Seattle Sounders FC's remaining schedule (11-13-5, 38 points)
<strong>DATE</strong> |
<strong>TIME (CT)</strong> |
<strong>OPPONENT</strong> |
<strong>RECORD</strong> |
Wednesday, Sept. 28 |
9:30pm |
CHICAGO FIRE |
6-14-9 (27 pts) |
Sunday, Oct. 2 |
7pm |
at Vancouver Whitecaps FC |
9-14-8 (35 pts) |
Wednesday, Oct. 12 |
9:30pm |
HOUSTON DYNAMO |
7-11-11 (32 pts) |
Sunday, Oct. 16 |
4pm |
at FC Dallas |
15-8-8 (53 pts) |
Sunday, Oct. 23 |
3pm |
REAL SALT LAKE |
12-10-9 (45 pts) |
Now that we’ve crunched numbers and glanced at schedules, here’s a current look at the Western Conference table. Playoff odds may be in Sporting Kansas City's favor, but no one except FC Dallas is completely safe just yet.
Western Conference standings (through Sept. 26)
<strong>TEAM</strong> |
<strong>GP</strong> |
<strong>W</strong> |
<strong>L</strong> |
<strong>T</strong> |
<strong>PTS</strong> |
<strong>LAST 5</strong> |
<strong>PLAYOFF<br>
CHANCES</strong> |
1. FC Dallas <strong>- x</strong> |
31 |
15 |
8 |
8 |
53 |
2-1-2 |
Clinched |
2. Colorado Rapids |
29 |
12 |
5 |
12 |
48 |
1-2-2 |
99.9% |
3. LA Galaxy |
31 |
11 |
5 |
15 |
48 |
2-1-2 |
99.9% |
4. Real Salt Lake |
31 |
12 |
10 |
9 |
45 |
1-2-2 |
95.3% |
<em><strong>5. Sporting KC</strong></em> |
<strong><em>31</em></strong> |
<strong><em>12</em></strong> |
<strong><em>12</em></strong> |
<strong><em>7</em></strong> |
<strong><em>43</em></strong> |
<strong><em>2-1-2</em></strong> |
<strong><em>87.9%</em></strong> |
6. Portland Timbers |
31 |
11 |
12 |
8 |
41 |
3-2-0 |
42.0% |
7. Seattle Sounders FC |
29 |
11 |
13 |
5 |
38 |
2-1-2 |
68.4% |
8. Vancouver Whitecaps FC |
31 |
9 |
14 |
8 |
35 |
1-2-2 |
1.6% |
9. San Jose Earthquakes |
29 |
7 |
9 |
13 |
34 |
0-2-3 |
3.5% |
10. Houston Dynamo |
29 |
7 |
11 |
11 |
32 |
2-1-2 |
1.3% |
Playoff chances calculated by Sports Club Stats
x - Clinched playoff spot
