Sometimes perspective is hard to find mired at the bottom of the table. The losing streaks can seem endless and hope comes and goes as the lack of results from week to week take their toll.
Add a two and a half month road trip to that mix and context, as Sporting Kansas City is finding out, can often be pushed by the wayside as patience runs thin throughout the club and its supporters, and each match takes on more and more importance.
Seven games into a 2011 season that was billed as a sort of rebirth – new brand, colors, stadium and increased expectations – Sporting is starting to feel the pressure that a 1-5-1 start and disappointing play brings. With only three games left before LIVESTRONG Sporting Park opens on June 9, Kansas City has just three opportunities remaining to get something from this road trip in order to bridge the growing gap between themselves and the rest of Major League Soccer.
In light of this, MLSsoccer.com combed through the record books and crunched the numbers to provide a little perspective to Sporting KC’s unenviable, but not yet hopeless, situation based on League history, the League trends and exactly what it will take to turn things around.
Historical precedent
It hasn’t happened often, but two MLS teams have embarked on extended, season-opening road trips in order to accommodate the construction of a new facility: the 2003 Los Angeles Galaxy and the 2006 Chicago Fire.
Surprisingly enough, both those squads made the playoffs, though the circumstances were very different from the current situation Sporting Kansas City faces.
While waiting for the Home Depot Center to open, LA played its first eight games away from home in 2003, losing four and drawing four. Even without registering a victory during their time on the road, the Galaxy managed to sneak into the playoffs with a 9-12-9 record by going 9-8-5 down the stretch.
Of course, the caveat at that time was that the League only consisted of 10 teams, eight of which advanced to the postseason. Los Angeles actually finished ninth that year, advancing to the playoffs over the Columbus Crew by virtue of conference affiliation despite earning fewer points. Not exactly a prime example when comparing MLS’ current state to the situation the Galaxy faced almost a decade ago.
Chicago, on the other hand, faced a situation with at least a few more similarities. The Fire took 10 points from their first nine games in 2006 as the finishing touches were being put on Toyota Park, concluding their road trip with a 2-3-4 record and playing out the rest of the season at 11-8-4 to finish on 47 points.
Like the Galaxy though, the playoff field was slightly more diluted with eight of 12 teams advancing to the postseason. Chicago finished fifth overall in the League that season and also won the U.S. Open Cup under the direction of Dave Sarachan.
So while the numbers and context of each situation don’t match-up exactly, the overriding message from the past is that recovery from a rough start is not impossible. It simply requires a significant improvement in form to accomplish.
Sporting’s situation with 27 games yet to play
Perhaps the most important thing to take away from Kansas City’s current slide is that they certainly aren’t the only team in MLS that has struggled mightily on the road thus far.
After nearly two months of play in 2011, MLS teams have won only 15 times in 86 games on the road for a winning percentage of just over 17 percent. More specifically, the Eastern Conference is 4-22-15 on the road in 41 away games, taking an average of .66 points per contest.
To put those numbers in the proper context, Sporting currently has a winning percentage of 14 percent and is averaging .57 points per match. And although their form has been admittedly poor of late, those numbers don’t take into consideration the fact that manager Peter Vermes’ side could, as unlikely as it may be, collect up to nine points from their final three games before LIVESTRONG Sporting Park opens its doors.
To accomplish that and, eventually, have a chance at competing in the playoffs, Kansas City must turn things around on the field similarly to Chicago and Los Angeles’ cases in 2006 and 2003. The real question is just how much better will they have to be.
One advantage Vermes and his players will have is the fact that 10 teams will make the playoffs this season instead of the customary eight, leaving at least some breathing room for teams that go through rough patches like the one Sporting are currently experiencing.
Based on the final standings from the 2007 through 2010 seasons, averaged and extrapolated to fit a 34-game season, the two teams that finish seventh and eighth overall in 2011 should have somewhere close to 47 points while the ninth and 10th finishers will have around 43. That means, at the very least, Kansas City will need to find a way to earn 39 points from the 81 available the rest of the way to have a chance at a playoff berth.
Just as an example, Sporting could still lose all three remaining road games in this trip then go 11-7-6 from then on to reach 43 points, giving them at least a chance at sniffing the playoffs with a 12-15-7 record that isn’t impressive but at least gives them a shot at the postseason. Mix even just one or two results into these final three road games and that equation gets even more palatable.
Conclusion
Times are tough, but many games remain.
Though Kansas City certainly hasn’t played anywhere close to their own expectations so far and wasted a few prime opportunities for additional points, all that could easily be forgotten should the team find it’s form and turn in an above-average performance the rest of the season. That won’t be easy as the Gold Cup guts Sporting’s roster and the schedule becomes more packed to make up for lost time, but it is definitely not inconceivable.
Simply put, though the odds are stacked against them, Kansas City must perform over their final 27 games and hope that is enough. With an expanded playoff field and 17 of their final 27 games coming at home, an epic recovery could very well may be in the cards.
