Earlier in the week, I looked at the latest standings for the Supporters' Shield and the Eastern Conference. Mathematically, there are multiple teams who can still win the Supporters' Shield but realistically its down to Sporting KC and the San Jose Earthquakes. Below is a detailed breakdown of both teams, their remaining schedules, and possible scenarios for each team winning the trophy.
Sporting KC (58 points)
Matches Remaining
at CLB (Oct 7) - Sporting won at Crew Stadium earlier in the season but lost in late July at LSP. A close match is expected with the slight edge to KC based on their recent and away form.
at NY (Oct 20) - It is likely to be the toughest of the three matches as NY have been very strong at home (unbeaten until KC's win there recently). If NY are playing their best, they will have the slight edge but their defensive struggles (and Sporting's win at Red Bull Arena) make it about even.
v PHI (Oct 24) - On paper, it appears to be the easiest match as the Union are out of playoff contention and is at home. The clear advantage to Sporting but it could be a match with little at stake if the Eastern Conference and/or Supporters' Shield races are already decided.
Scenarios to win Supporters' Shield
Sporting will clinch the Supporters Shield if they can gain four points on SJ during these final three matches. A tie in points would favor San Jose as they have significantly more goals scored and better goal difference. The minimum amount required is at least a win and draw from Sporting (four points) but realistically it's likely at least six points (two wins) if not nine points (three wins). It should be noted that Sporting have been in better form and wouldn't be unprecedented for SJ to go winless in their final three matches.
Possible Outcomes
<strong>Record (W-L-T)</strong> |
<strong>Points</strong> |
3-0-0 |
67 |
2-0-1 |
65 |
2-1-0 |
64 |
1-1-1 |
62 |
0-0-3 |
61 |
0-1-2 |
60 |
0-2-1 |
59 |
0-3-0 |
58 |
SJ Earthquakes (61 points)
Matches Remaining
at COL (Oct 6) - The Rapids will not make the playoffs but won't be a walkover at home against SJ. A match with both teams having a decent shot to win.
v LA (Oct 21) - Definitely the crucial match of the final three for San Jose as they are heavy favorites in the other two. SJ has been conceding goals at home and the recent strong form from LA means it should be a very even match with a narrow edge to the home side.
at POR (Oct 27) - SJ shouldn't have too tough of a time against one of the league's worst defenses. As with KC's match against PHI, it could be a match where starters could be rested if playoff seedings are already set (SJ would all but clinch Supporters' Shield if they win previous two matches).
Scenarios to win Supporters' Shield
SJ will win the Supporters' Shield if they get at least six points (two wins) from their final three matches. They hold virtually all the tiebreakers over Sporting and do not need to finish with more points. Winning at least one of their remaining matches will put them in great position and force Sporting to get at least seven points (two wins, one draw) or better. Overall, they clearly have the advantage but their recent slip-ups (home draws against POR & FCD) and reliance on scoring late goals have been worrying.
Possible Outcomes
<strong>Record (W-L-T)</strong> |
<strong>Points</strong> |
3-0-0 |
70 |
2-0-1 |
68 |
2-1-0 |
67 |
1-1-1 |
65 |
0-0-3 |
64 |
0-1-2 |
63 |
0-2-1 |
62 |
0-3-0 |
61 |
