League

Playoff Math: First-place Sporting KC can secure top seed in West on Decision Day

Sporting Kansas City began Wednesday in second place. Sporting Kansas City ended Wednesday in first place. Sporting Kansas City did not play on Wednesday.


Welcome to the unprecedented quirks of points per game in Major League Soccer and welcome to the final edition of Playoff Math, a special series on SportingKC.com dedicated to deciphering the code that is qualification and seeding for the Audi 2020 MLS Cup Playoffs.


Following last night's slate of midweek matches, the Western Conference playoff field is set. In the space of a single week -- beginning when Sporting Kansas City became the first team to clinch a postseason berth last Wednesday with a 1-0 win at FC Cincinnati -- all eight playoff positions in the Western Conference have been secured.


Now, it all comes down to MLS Decision Day 2020 presented by AT&T to determine seeding and home field advantage as the Western Conference's path to MLS Cup will be officially set in the single-elimination playoff bracket.


All 12 Western Conference clubs will be in action at 5:30 p.m. CT on Sunday, with Sporting Kansas City on the road at Real Salt Lake with a chance to lock up the top spot in the West.


Thanks to a pair of favorable results late last night with Portland's 1-0 loss and Seattle's 1-1 draw, Sporting Kansas City is firmly in control of the club's playoff destiny.


Put simply, Sporting Kansas City will finish in first place in the Western Conference with a win at Real Salt Lake on Sunday.


A draw or loss opens the door to finishing first, second or third in the table based on the following scenarios.


If Sporting Kansas City do not win on Sunday...

  • Sporting KC will finish first in the West if Portland AND Seattle do not win
  • Sporting KC will finish second in the West if Portland OR Seattle win
  • Sporting KC will finish third in the West if Portland AND Seattle win


The table below shows the current Western Conference standings, based on points per game, and also calculates each team's final points per game based on that team's result in Sunday's regular season finale.

Team
Points
Games<br> Played
Points Per<br> Game Now
Final PPG<br> with Loss
Final PPG<br> with Tie
Final PPG<br> with Win
x-SKC
36
20
1.8
1.714
1.762
1.857
x-POR
38
22
1.73
1.652
1.696
1.783
x-SEA
36
21
1.71
1.636
1.682
1.773
x-DAL
34
21
1.62
1.545
1.591
1.682
x-MIN
31
20
1.55
1.476
1.524
1.619
x-LAFC
31
21
1.48
1.409
1.455
1.545
x-COL
25
17
1.47
1.389
1.444
1.556
x-SJ
30
22
1.36
1.304
1.348
1.435
e-VAN
24
22
1.09
1.043
1.087
1.174
e-LA
22
21
1.05
1
1.045
1.136
e-RSL
22
21
1.05
1
1.045
1.136
e-HOU
21
22
0.95
0.913
0.957
1.043

x - Clinched playoff spot
e - Eliminated from playoff race


Knowing that Sporting can finish as high as first or as low as third, Sporting Kansas City's potential opening round playoff opponent is narrowed to one of the following five teams: FC Dallas, Minnesota United FC, Los Angeles FC, Colorado Rapids or the San Jose Earthquakes.


Should Sporting finish first, that list shrinks to three (LAFC, Colorado or San Jose) and Sporting will have pulled off the greatest single-season turnaround  in MLS history from one season's standings to the next - jumping 10 spots from an injury-plagued 2019 campaign that concluded with the club in 11th place. 


D.C. United currently lays claim to the most impressive year-over-year rise up the table, having gone from 10th place in 2013 to first place in 2014.


Sunday's showdown between Sporting KC and Real Salt Lake, a rematch of MLS Cup 2013, could come in comparable weather conditions in Sandy, Utah with temperatures near freezing and snow in the forecast as the MLS regular season concludes later than ever before in the league's 25-year history.


RSLvSKC will be broadcast live on FOX Sports Kansas City, FOX Sports Midwest, ESPN 94.5 FM and La Grande 1340 AM. Additionally, the match will stream live on FOX Sports digital platforms, available for viewers within Sporting’s TV footprint who receive FOX Sports Kansas City or FOX Sports Midwest as part of their pay-TV subscription. Viewers outside of the FOX Sports Midwest footprint can stream the match on ESPN+.